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Making life difficult for Robertson

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: Reserve Bank Governor Adrian Orr and Finance Minister Grant Robertson.

Published:
13 November 2019

By


Richard Harman

(author)

The Reserve Bank looks likely to make life more difficult for Finance Minister Grant Robertson today.

The Bank yesterday released its survey of the inflation expectations of business managers and professionals for the December 2019 quarter, and the results show a further fall.

Trading bank economists, commenting in the survey, are predicting that will lead to further cuts in the Official Cash Rate (OCR) when Reserve Bank Governor Adrian Orr unveils his Monetary Policy Statement this afternoon.

With the trading banks predicting that Orr will cut the OCR by 25 basis points to take it to .75 per cent; the Bank is heading towards either zero or negative interest rates.

If he wants to avoid that situation, Robertson will need to re-examine Government spending, particularly the straitjacket which it has been contained within because of Labour’s Budget Sustainability Rules.

The Bank will present him with other problems too.

Lower interest rates mean higher house prices and respondents to the Bank’s survey are already expecting house prices to rise.

68.0% of respondents to the survey expected one year ahead house price inflation to be more than 3.0%.

Prices are expected to grow at 4.51% in one year’s time.

This is an increase from 2.71% reported in the previous quarter’s survey.

At the core of the survey are inflation expectations which for one year ahead have decreased since last quarter’s survey from a mean of 1.71% to 1.66%.

“Expectations for two years ahead decreased from 1.86% to 1.80%,” the Bank said in a statement.

And the respondents are also picking a drop in the OCR.

“The mean expectation for the end of quarter Official Cash Rate decreased from 1.32% to 0.79%.

“The one year ahead expectation decreased from 1.13% to 0.61%.”

Overall the respondents painted a picture of an economy that had stalled.

“Compared with last quarter, expectations for annual real GDP growth increased slightly from 2.10% to 2.14% for one year ahead,” the Bank said

And they picked no falls in the unemployment rate and modest wage growth of around one per cent for the next two years.

That figure must concern the Finance Minister.

While the Reserve Bank Governor might hope that rate cuts will induce more spending and thus might start to push inflation up; the track record so far shows that the Bank is not having a big impact.

Kiwibank economists Jarrod Kerr and Jeremy Couchman said the release of the report was rather timely, ahead of today’s OCR decision.

“After years of good behaviour, Kiwi expectations of inflation have fallen worryingly below the RBNZ’s 2% inflation target midpoint,” they said.

“The RBNZ have determined that past inflation has a more significant influence on price-setting behaviour than forward-looking inflation expectations.

“So monetary policy has to work harder today, to influence inflation tomorrow.

“Hence, the 50 basis points cut in August, which was an attempt to lift people’s heads.”

However, they said that yesterday’s survey result suggested that the outsized 50 basis points cut back in August has failed to turn the inflation expectations dial.

“And this adds further weight to our view that the RBNZ should cut the OCR to 75 basis points.

“Momentum in the NZ economy is fading, backed up by business confidence surveys’ measure of firms’ own activity outlook and last week’s weaker labour market report. ”

ASB senior economist, Mark Smith, took a similar view.

“The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the RBNZ would have had access to these figures when they were deliberating OCR settings,” he said.

“Sub-2% backdrop for short to medium-term inflation expectations and signs that economic growth is expected to remain sub-par provide the RBNZ with scope to move the OCR lower to provide additional support to the economy.

“We expect a 25 basis points cut to the OCR to be delivered tomorrow (to 0.75%).”

The goal for both the Bank and Robertson will be to get spending ticking over again.

A year ago, in his interim report on behalf of the Tax Working Group, the former Finance Minister, Sir Michael Cullen addressed this issue.

”The best mechanism to improve incomes for very low-income households, for example, will be to increase welfare transfers,” he said.

“If the intention is to improve incomes for certain groups of low-to-middle-income earners (such as full-time workers on the minimum wage), then changes to the personal income rates and-or thresholds will be more effective.”

But Robertson yesterday ignored the RBNZ survey and instead was defending existing wage policies.

“According to the Stats New Zealand data, 59 per cent of workers received an increase in salary and ordinary-time wage rates over the year to September,” he told Parliament.

“And the latest OECD data shows that New Zealand’s wage growth this year has outstripped the UK, the US, Japan, Germany, France, Italy, Spain, Denmark, Finland, Sweden, and the European Union average.

“This is yet another indication of the strength of the New Zealand economy compared to our international peers.

“Despite international headwinds and a slowing global economy, businesses are continuing to invest in their workers, meaning more money in the pockets of New Zealanders.”

Clearly, that last statement is now debatable, and the pressure is now surely going to go on Robertson to start spending.

We may get a better idea of what he intends to when he releases his Budget Policy Statement early next month.

In the meantime, the Reserve Bank looks set to have another go at trying to incite people to borrow and spend.


politik

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Aktuelle News der FAZ zur Flüchtlingskrise

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Asylpolitik
Das Ende von „Dublin“


Bislang war das Dublin-Abkommen einfach nicht tot zu kriegen. Denn ein noch so mangelhaftes Abkommen war besser als gar keines. Ist jetzt etwas Besseres gefunden worden?
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Brexit-Abstimmung verschoben
Johnsons Chancen


Abermals ist es den Brexit-Gegnern gelungen, den Ausstiegsprozess aufzuhalten. Es klingt widersinnig, aber Johnson ist seinem Ziel, einem Austritt Ende des Monats, dennoch ein Stück näher gekommen.
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Von Jochen Buchsteiner, London

20.10.2019, 08:33 Uhr | Brexit

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Türkische Syrien-Offensive
„Erdogan will unsere Allianz brechen“


Ünal Ceviköz, der Vize-Vorsitzende der größten türkischen Oppositionspartei CHP, erklärt im Interview die innenpolitischen Motive des Nordsyrien-Feldzugs – und warum er die Ansiedlung von zwei Millionen Flüchtlingen in der „Sicherheitszone“ für utopisch hält.
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Militäreinsatz in Syrien
Isolierte Türkei


Mit seiner Operation „Friedensquelle“, die keinen Frieden verspricht, hat sich Erdogan isoliert. Ob er die Einsicht haben wird, dass die Türkei allein auf sich gestellt leicht in den Strudel der nahöstlichen Konflikte hinabgezogen werden kann?
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Erdogans Offensive
„Die Türkei will mehr“


Dem türkischen Präsidenten Erdogan geht es um territoriale Ansprüche und den Kampf gegen die Kurden. Der Politikwissenschaftler Roy Karadag erklärt im Interview, wie der türkische Präsident die syrischen Flüchtlinge dabei zur Waffe macht.

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David Camerons Memoiren
Das (un)vermeidbare Referendum


Unter David Cameron fand 2016 das schicksalhafte EU-Referendum statt. In seinen Memoiren „For the Record“ übt der ehemalige Premierminister nun Selbstkritik und beurteilt die Rolle Boris Johnsons im Ringen um den Brexit.
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politik

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Effective: July 2, 2019

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With respect to Personal Data collected on the Public Website, BlackLine is the controller, and may act as a joint controller with its EU affiliates for the Personal Data of EU customers and prospects. BlackLine is the processor of the Personal Data collected in connection with our offering of the Hosted Service.

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  • In Response to Legal Process. We also may disclose User Information we collect from you in order to comply with the law, a judicial proceeding, court order, or other legal process, such as in response to a court order or a subpoena or to meet national security or law enforcement requirements.
  • To Protect Us and Others. We also may disclose the User Information we collect where we believe it is necessary to investigate, prevent or take action regarding illegal activities, suspected fraud, situations involving potential threats to the safety of any person, violations of a Master Subscription Agreement or this Statement, or as evidence in litigation in which BlackLine is involved.
  • Necessary to provide the Hosted Services. We may disclose User Information to sub-processors necessary to provide the Hosted Services as disclosed and consented to you in a data processing agreement or otherwise.

FACILITY VISITOR INFORMATION COLLECTION

If you visit our offices, you may be required to register as a visitor and to provide your name, email address, and company name. We use this information for security reasons, to register visitors to our offices and to manage non-disclosure agreements that visitors may be required to sign, to the extent such processing is necessary for our legitimate interest in protecting our offices and our confidential information against unauthorized access.

COOKIES

Regarding our use of Cookies, please follow this link to our cookies policy here

GENERAL PROVISIONS APPLICABLE TO ALL CUSTOMERS AND VISITORS

We process your Personal Data on the following legal bases:

  • Performance of a contract – The use of your personal information may be necessary to perform the agreement that you have with us (for example, the Hosted Service);
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  • Consent – We will rely on your consent to use (i) technical information such as cookie data; and (ii) your personal information for marketing purposes when requested;
  • Legal obligation – to comply with our legal obligations.

Retention and Storage of Information Collected

In accordance with the data minimization and purpose limitation principles, BlackLine will store your Personal Data as long reasonably necessary and only for as long as required to fulfill the purposes the relevant purposes of processing your Personal Data. If we process your Personal Data for various purposes, it will be erased automatically, or saved in a format which does not allow any direct conclusions to be drawn as to your identity as soon as the last specific purpose has been fulfilled.

How to Exercise your Rights on the Use of your Personal Data

If you wish to access, verify, correct, update or delete the Personal Data you have provided to BlackLine via the Public Website, or to restrict our use or object to our use of any of your Personal Data and to give directives on the fate of their Personal Data after death, please contact us by sending an e-mail to: PrivacyRequest@blackline.comor by regular mail addressed to BlackLine Systems, Inc., Attn: Security Administrator, 21300 Victory Blvd., 12th Floor, Woodland Hills, CA 91367

If you reside in the European Union, you also have the right to withdraw your consent, where the processing of your Personal Data is based on your consent and to lodge a complaint with your national supervisory authority. You also have the right to data portability, at your request, we will provide your Personal Data to you in a portable machine-readable format so that you can provide to another controller.

Please note that we may be required (by applicable law or otherwise) to keep your Personal Data and not delete it (or to keep your information for a certain time, in which case we will comply with your deletion request only after we have fulfilled such requirements). In certain situations, we might be unable to provide you with information on all of your Personal data due to statutory provisions. Should we be forced to deny your request for information in such case, we will at the same state the reasons for denial.

BlackLine will respond to any of your request within at most thirty (30) days from the date of your request.

BlackLine offers its visitors and customers a means to choose how we may use Personal Data provided. If, at any time after providing Personal Data, you change your mind about receiving information from us or about sharing your information with third parties, send a request specifying your new choice to: PrivacyRequest@blackline.com

Sensitive Information

We will not intentionally collect or process, and do not want you to provide, any Personal Data revealing your racial or ethnic origin, political opinions, religious or philosophical beliefs, or trade union membership. We will not process any genetic data, biometric data, data concerning your medical or health condition and data concerning your sex life or sexual orientation.

Children’s Online Privacy Protection

Neither the Public Website nor the Hosted Service are designed for or directed to children under the age of 13, and we will not intentionally collect or maintain information about anyone under the age of 13. Where children are at least 13 years old and below the age of 16, we will collect or process information about them with the consent or the authorization of the holder of parental responsibility over the child.

If we become aware that we have unknowingly collected Personal Data from a child under the age of 13, or under the age of 16 without the consent or the authorization of the holder of the parental responsibility, we will make reasonable efforts to delete such information from our records.

Security

The Public Website and Hosted Service have security measures in place to help protect against the loss, misuse, and alteration of information and data under our control. When our Public Website or Hosted Service is accessed using Internet Explorer 11, or recent versions of Firefox or Chrome Transport Layer Security (TLS) is employed to encrypt all communications and to help ensure data confidentiality. Hosted Service uses authentication mechanisms to help ensure that information and data is safe and secure. BlackLine hosts the Public Website and Hosted Service in a secure environment that uses firewalls, intrusion detection, anti-malware, and other advanced technology to prevent interference or access from intruders. To ensure an appropriate level of security, BlackLine has implemented technical and organizational measures which are audited on a regular basis. In that respect, BlackLine has been granted the ISO/IEC 27001 certification and has completed the Service Organization Control 1 and 2. These safeguards help prevent unauthorized access, maintain data accuracy and ensure the appropriate use of information and data.

In addition, BlackLine ensures that the recipients of your Personal Data comply with the above security standards.

Verification

BlackLine utilizes the self-assessment approach to assure its compliance with this Statement. BlackLine regularly verifies that the Statement is accurate, comprehensive, prominently displayed, completely implemented and in conformity with the EU-US Privacy Shield and Swiss-US Privacy Shield and conducts its self-assessment on an annual basis to ensure all relevant privacy practices are followed. Appropriate employee training is in place and internal procedures for periodically conducting objective reviews of compliance are in place. A statement verifying this self-assessment is signed by a corporate officer or other authorized representative at least once a year.

Changes to this Privacy Statement

BlackLine reserves the right to change this Privacy Statement as reasonably necessary or advisable to accommodate changes to the law, technology or circumstances, and will use reasonable efforts to provide notification of the material changes at least thirty (30) business days prior to the changes taking effect.

Contacting BlackLine

Questions regarding this Statement or the practices of the Hosted Service or Public Website should be directed to BlackLine’s Security Administrator by e-mailing such questions to PrivacyRequest@blackline.com or by regular mail addressed to BlackLine Systems, Inc., Attn: Security Administrator, 21300 Victory Blvd., 12th Floor, Woodland Hills, CA 91367.

Disputes/Arbitration

BlackLine will attempt to investigate and promptly resolve any disputes or complaint regarding the interpretation or compliance with this Statement. You can submit a dispute or complaint to us as set forth in the section entitled Contacting BlackLine above. As part of BlackLine’s participation in the Privacy Shield Framework, it has designated JAMS as its ADR provider for resolving disputes under the EU-U.S. Privacy Shield and Swiss-US Privacy Shield. For more information on JAMS as an ADR provider and the procedure for filing complaints, please see www.jamsadr.com/eu-us-privacy-shield. Under certain conditions, more fully described on the Privacy Shield website (https://www.privacyshield.gov/article?id=How-to-Submit-a-Complaint), you may be entitled to invoke binding arbitration when other dispute resolution procedures have been exhausted.

Your California Privacy Rights

California law permits residents of California to request certain details about what personal information a company shares with third parties for the third parties’ direct marketing purposes. BlackLine does not share your information with third parties for the third parties’ own and independent direct marketing purposes. If you have any questions about what personal information BlackLine may share with third parties that are not already answered in this Statement, please contact BlackLine at: PrivacyRequest@blackline.com.

Do Not Track Requests

Certain web browsers have incorporated “Do Not Track” feature. This feature, when turned on, sends a preference to the websites you visit indicating that you do not wish to be tracked. Those sites (or the third-party content on those sites) may continue to engage in activities you might view as tracking even though you have expressed this preference, depending on the sites’ privacy practices. Because there is not yet a commonly-accepted standard on how to interpret the Do Not Track requests, BlackLine does not currently respond to the browser Do Not Track requests on its websites or online services.


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Review Die Reformation 1495 1555 Politik Mit Theologie Und Religion 9783150190548

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The Bottom Line The Die Reformation 1495 1555 Politik Mit Theologie Und Religion 9783150190548 are very well-built and sound wonderful.


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Overview abstract With its 12X-zoom Cyber Shot DSC-H1, Sony joins the megazoom competition. Although slightly bigger and heavier than its rivals, the H1 holds its own thanks to a broad function set, speedy efficiency, and a generally properly-thought-out design. We have now a number of quibbles and need that the photographs had been sharper, but overall, the H1 could please fanatics hankering for a camera with an prolonged focal vary. Weighing 1 pound, 2 ounces when loaded with a Memory Stick and two AA batteries, the Sony Cyber Shot DSC-H1 marginally outweighs the rest of its 5-megapixel megazoom competition. But it surely’s certainly not enough to be noticeable when toting the camera round all day; the truth is, this additional bit of quantity and weight provides to the H1’s solid and substantial feel–a plus whenever you’re working with lengthy focal lengths. General, the H1 is nicely designed and works well in almost all capturing conditions.



It’s quite a bit like its predecessor, but for the most part, that is okay.


Though it’s rated at 5.5 frames per second for continuous taking pictures, I couldn’t get it to work that quick with autofocus enabled. With AF — our normal take a look at circumstances — it maxed out at four.6fps for about forty JPEGs and 4.5fps for about 10 uncooked. With focus mounted on the first body and a shutter speed of 1/250 second I received it up to 5.4fps. Nonetheless, four.6fps needs to be high-quality for most burst-shooting situations.
Sensor and imaging processor: Like the current era of excessive-end Micro Four Thirds cameras, the GH5 upgrades to a 20.3-megapixel sensor, and like Olympus’ fashionable line has dropped the antialiasing filter from it for sharper pictures. It also gets Panasonic’s newest version of its Venus Engine processor; the faster sensor readout and processing speed allow nearly all the upgraded capabilities, and tweaks the algorithms for better element dealing with and noise reduction.

Sony’s comply with-as much as its NEX-6 laps the sector with its 11fps burst and cozy design.

I am unsure when a company will really perfect a pair of wireless sports activities headphones, however Denon’s $149 Train Freak in-ear Bluetooth headphones get you about 80 percent of the way there. I found them comfy to wear and, just as importantly, they match securely and I had no trouble getting them in my ears. They also sound good for Bluetooth headphones, though just how good they sound will rely on how tight a seal you get.

The S8000fd consists of most of the options you’d expect to find in a megazoom. The Die Reformation 1495 1555 Politik Mit Theologie Und Religion 9783150190548 are a hotshoe and UNCOOKED capture. As talked about above, the S8000fd contains sensor-shift image stabilization in distinction to the DMC-FZ18’s optical picture stabilization. While sensor-shift IS has a reputation of being inferior to optical IS, I received spectacular results from the S8000fd. In my subject exams, I was capable of seize a sharp image shooting at 1/one hundred fifty second and the lens zoomed all the way in which to its 486mm restrict. Without image stabilization, I’d have had to shoot at 1/500 second to get these results. Fuji also includes an ISO-boost mode that they also discuss with as an IS mode. However, as at all times, increased ISOs carry with them extra noise and fewer sharpness.




The

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This compact interchangeable-lens model is a good step-up from APS-C models, as lengthy…

JVC makes a number of forms of inexpensive headphones, although not all of them are good. I’m a fan of the , an on-ear mannequin that retails for around $12 on-line (£5 in the UK) and the earbuds, for $7 (£6), are also respectable for the money. Now I’m completely happy to report that I may give a thumbs-as much as the company’s HA-S400 Carbon Nanotubes , reviewed here. You can snag them for below $30 in the US, or about £25 within the UK.
This is a pattern of the costs of various configurations:

The TX7 has Sony’s TransferJet expertise for wi-fi picture and video transfers between the camera and TransferJet-appropriate devices. No pairing is important, however the two products should be within about an inch of each other. Of course, you will need some extra gear to reap the benefits of the feature. For starters, you’ll want a Reminiscence Persist with TransferJet; an 8GB card runs simply less than $one hundred. You will also want to have something with a TransferJet receiver. Sony has laptops with the function, or you’ll be able to choose up a Sony USB TransferJet Station that sells for about $a hundred and fifty. The function will work with other TransferJet cameras, too, do you have to want to switch as much as 10 photos to someone else’s digital camera.


Sony’s comply with-up to its NEX-6 laps the field with its 11fps burst and comfy design.


The standard gray filter doesn’t “push” any frequency range, however the PFE 132 also comes with a set of black filters that enhance the bas

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s. The Die Reformation 1495 1555 Politik Mit Theologie Und Religion 9783150190548 are packed in a small travel case, which comes with a particular instrument used to put in and take away the filters within the earphones. Few headphones permit the homeowners to tune the sound to style, so I’m happy to see Audeo embody this function.
We’ll let you know the way the Gear Circle compares to its opponents as soon as we get our palms on a overview pattern. For now here is a take a look at its specs, sans pricing:

Nice sound, nevertheless it’s trapped in Apple’s world

However, you’re going to wish to spring for a excessive-capability Memory Stick since you’re not going to suit more than six excessive-resolution photographs on the bundled 16MB card. The Die Reformation 1495 1555 Politik Mit Theologie Und Religion 9783150190548 is that the P93 works with the Memory Stick Professional and, at the time of this assessment, has been examined to work as much as 1GB. You will want one to take advantage of the camera’s capability to seize 30fps, VGA-resolution movies up to the capability of the card.
The Listen may not look superstylish, but it is comfortable and is a better designed headphone than Focal’s earlier , which we reviewed back in 2012. The Listen feels good and sturdy, however — at 9.9 ounces or 281 grams — it is not the lightest headphone. That weight takes somewhat away from its comfort stage. ( and are more comfy overall.)

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It nonetheless has some drawbacks compared to its dSLR competition — the autofocus system likely nonetheless can’t preserve with theirs, and its steady-shooting efficiency with AF will doubtless fall brief as well. Plus, generally, the mirrorless fashions have terrible battery life compared to dSLRs. But its electronic viewfinder will most likely be nice for shooting video and unlike Canon and Nikon, affords clear HDMI out.

Fast and versatile, the Nikon D500 is one of the greatest dSLRs you should purchase for under $2,000.

Along with the requirements, the P93 now has a reside histogram, available in each capture and playback modes. Like every part else that appears on the monitor, the histogram is small, however the visible mountains and valleys that point out the steadiness of highlights, midtones, and shadows are clearly legible.
Measurement (WHD)
The L77’s 38 to 266mm-equal lens stands out as its biggest function whereas not actually standing out from the digicam itself. While most powerful lenses tend to increase out noticeably from the digital camera physique (the Samsung and are available to mind), the L77’s lens stays fully contained in the camera at all times. Due to this inside mechanism, the digital camera stays nice and slim, even while you’re zooming all the best way in. The zoom additionally works when recording 30 fps VGA video with the digital camera’s film mode, an important feature contemplating how many cameras with film modes disable the optical zoom. Unfortunately, the camera would not use any sort of optical or mechanical stabilization system. Instead, the L77 makes use of Samsung’s Electronic Image Stabilization to measure digital camera shake and alter the picture in-digital camera.


The menu system has been fully redesigned, nonetheless. The Menu button now brings you to both the shooting or playback menu, relying on the mode you are utilizing on the time. A second button labeled Home brings you to a normal setup menu the place you can select shooting or playback mode and regulate quite a lot of other setup capabilities. Should you’re used to a different digicam’s menus, you need to most likely tour these menus, or read the manual fastidiously, since certain capabilities could also be in a special place. For example, it’s important to delve into the Home menu if you want to format your memory card, whereas many cameras have this operate in the Play menu.


Very similar to the

, and the

, the Purity Pro also boasts active noise cancellation know-how to analyze background din and damp it. The Die Reformation 1495 1555 Politik Mit Theologie Und Religion 9783150190548 is to create a more isolating and pleasing music listening expertise. Because it’s outfitted with an onboard microphone, you should utilize the Nokia Purity Professional to reply or place telephone calls arms-free.


Sony’s observe-as much as its NEX-6 laps the field with its 11fps burst and cozy design.

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